A joint report by Google and Deloitte estimates that India’s e-commerce market could grow from $90 billion to $250 billion by 2030, driven by changes in consumer behaviour, technology adoption, and content-led discovery.

Titled The $250 Billion Commerce Frontier, the report highlights a shift from a linear shopping funnel to a continuous cycle of discovery, validation, and purchase, shaped by mobile-first consumption and AI-led experiences.

The report states that a projected 220 million Gen Z consumers will account for 45% of online spending by 2030, as 150 million new users enter the digital economy and per capita spending increases. This cohort is expected to drive demand for more personalised and immersive shopping journeys.

Roma Datta Chobey, managing director - Connected Consumer Commerce, Google India, said: “This is a pivotal moment for Indian commerce driven by a fundamental shift in how India shops. Consumers today demand experiences inspired by storytelling, powered by AI and immersive technologies, and anchored by instant fulfillment. At Google, we are committed to empowering this ecosystem through intelligence and trust. From our virtual try on tool and shopping features in AI Mode and now, Gemini app to creators driving commerce on YouTube, we are streamlining the journey from brainstorming to browsing to final purchase. Central to this evolution is our focus on agentic AI, where we are building tools to benefit both consumers and brands. We are excited to partner with the ecosystem to drive this new standard of commerce, leveraging AI to turn the ‘love for the find’ into a personalized, seamless reality for every consumer.”

Anand Ramanathan, partner & consumer industry leader - South Asia, Deloitte, “India’s e-commerce landscape is entering a structurally different phase, moving from mass marketing to an era of algorithmic intimacy, where demand is not just predicted but synthesized in real time. A new cohort of digital-first consumers, led by Gen Z, is driving this shift, valuing authenticity alongside speed and relevance. This is accelerating the rise of generative commerce, where consumers can describe a need and AI curates or even creates solutions instantly. We are also beginning to see the emergence of curation-as-a-service, with AI-led journeys reshaping discovery, decision-making and fulfilment. For businesses, the opportunity lies in combining intelligent technology, creator ecosystems and agile supply chains to drive deeper engagement, higher wallet share and sustainable growth.”

The report identifies creators as a growing influence in digital commerce, with projections suggesting they could impact 30% of total retail spend by 2030. Live commerce is expected to expand into an $8 billion segment, particularly in categories such as fashion, beauty and electronics.

It also highlights the growth of quick commerce, which is projected to reach $50 billion by 2030. Non-food categories are expected to account for 45% of this spend, as the model expands beyond metro cities into Tier 2 and Tier 3 markets.

AI is expected to play a central role in both customer experience and operational efficiency, with the report estimating a potential 30–35% increase in retail profitability through personalisation, inventory management and logistics optimisation.

The companies also announced updates to shopping features, including integrations within Gemini and AI-powered search, aimed at making product discovery and purchase more conversational.

The report concludes that a combination of AI, creator ecosystems and immersive technologies such as virtual try-ons will shape the next phase of growth in India’s e-commerce sector.